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Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for Svalbard

  1. R. E. Benestad*,
  2. E. J. Førland,
  3. I. Hanssen-Bauer

Article first published online: 18 MAR 2004

DOI: 10.1006/asle.2002.0050

Issue

Atmospheric Science Letters

Atmospheric Science Letters

Volume 3, Issue 2-4, pages 71–93, July - December 2002

Additional Information

How to Cite

Benestad, R. E., Førland, E. J. and Hanssen-Bauer, I. (2002), Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for Svalbard. Atmospheric Science Letters, 3: 71–93. doi: 10.1006/asle.2002.0050

Author Information

  1. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, 0313, Oslo, Norway

*The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, 0313, Oslo, Norway

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 18 MAR 2004
  2. Article first published online: 18 MAR 2004

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Keywords:

  • Svalbard;
  • climate change;
  • empirical downscaling;
  • multi-model climate scenarios;
  • common EOFs

Abstract

Empirically downscaled climate scenarios are presented for the Svalbard region, based on mixed 2-meter temperature and sea level pressure fields. The scenarios are derived using the large-scale fields from the ECHAM4-GSDIO, HadCM3, and NCAR-CSM climate change experiments, and utilizing common empirical orthogonal functions.

There are substantial differences between the scenarios derived from the various models. Those downscaled from the HadCM3 model indicate significantly stronger warming than those based on the ECHAM4-GSDIO and NCAR-CSM models. Much of these differences can be explained in terms of the different descriptions of the sea-ice extent. The sea-ice in the HadCM3 scenario is subject to a substantial retreat in the Barents Sea, whereas there is no melting in the same region in the NCAR-CSM model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

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