Generating probabilities in support of societal decision-making
Article first published online: 19 OCT 2006
©2001. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
Volume 82, Issue 20, pages 222–225, 15 May 2001
How to Cite
2001), Generating probabilities in support of societal decision-making, Eos Trans. AGU, 82(20), 222–225, doi:10.1029/01EO00119., and (
- Issue published online: 19 OCT 2006
- Article first published online: 19 OCT 2006
Earth science predictions of natural phenomena are increasingly seen as valuable aids for improving societal decision-making. Pielke et al.  argued presuasively that good predictions alone won't achieve better societal decisions. These authors call for change in the decision-making environments in which scientific predictions are used, though that may be more than those of scientists. We see a role also for changing the information that scientists could better serve socisty by generating not only possible scenarios, but also probabilities, even for decisions that are to be made in the future.