An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution
Article first published online: 7 DEC 2012
Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 27, Issue 6, pages 767–770, 15 March 2000
How to Cite
- Issue published online: 7 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 7 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 DEC 1999
- Manuscript Received: 8 JUL 1999
Recent studies using atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed time history of global sea surface temperature anomalies have been used to hind-cast the temporal history of the North Atlantic Oscillation. They find that the mean of a large ensemble of integrations using slightly different initial atmospheric conditions reproduces the observed variability surprisingly well, especially on time scales longer than a few years. However, they also find that amplitude of the atmospheric variability is considerably reduced and the air-sea heat fluxes are of the reverse sign to those observed. Here, a linear model of midlatitude atmosphere/ocean interaction forced only by high-frequency atmospheric stochastic variability is shown to reproduce all of these findings. This model suggests that despite the hind-cast skill, the useful predictability associated with midlatitude SST anomalies may be limited to one or two seasons.