Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons
Article first published online: 15 MAY 2003
Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume 17, Issue 2, June 2003
How to Cite
2003), Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 17, 1047, doi:10.1029/2001GB001842, 2., and (
- Issue published online: 15 MAY 2003
- Article first published online: 15 MAY 2003
- Manuscript Accepted: 6 FEB 2003
- Manuscript Revised: 20 DEC 2002
- Manuscript Received: 28 NOV 2001
 The range of responses of alternate detailed models for the ocean and biosphere components of the global carbon cycle, cataloged in model intercomparison studies, are simulated by a reduced form Earth system model employing a range of model parameters. The reduced form model, parameterized in this way, allows the integration of these components of the carbon cycle with an energy balance climate model with a prescribed range of climate sensitivity. We use this model to construct ranges of: (1) past carbon budgets given past CO2 concentrations, fossil carbon emissions, and temperature records, (2) future CO2 concentrations and temperature for given emission scenarios, and (3) CO2 emissions and temperature for given trajectories of future CO2 concentrations leading to constant levels within the next several centuries. Carbon cycle is an additional contributor to uncertainty in climate projections that is calculated to expand the range of projected global temperature beyond that reported in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment.