Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM
Article first published online: 24 DEC 2002
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 29, Issue 24, pages 28-1–28-4, December 2002
How to Cite
Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(24), 2175, doi:10.1029/2001GL014575, 2002., , , , , and ,
- Issue published online: 24 DEC 2002
- Article first published online: 24 DEC 2002
- Manuscript Accepted: 18 MAR 2002
- Manuscript Received: 16 DEC 2001
 The HadCM3 AOGCM has been used to undertake an ensemble of four integrations from 1860 to 1999 with forcings due to all major anthropogenic and natural climate factors. The simulated decreasing trend in average Arctic sea ice extent for 1970–1999 (−2.5% per decade) is very similar to observations. HadCM3 indicates that internal variability and natural forcings (solar and volcanic) of the climate system are very unlikely by themselves to have caused a trend of this size. The simulated decreasing trend in Arctic sea ice volume (−3.4% per decade for 1961–1998) is less than some recent observationally based estimates. Extending the integrations into the 21st century, Arctic sea ice area and volume continue to decline. Area decreases linearly as global-average temperature rises (by 13% per K), and volume diminishes more rapidly than area. By the end of the century, in some scenarios, the Arctic is ice-free in late summer.