• Folland, C. K., et al., Observed climate variability and change, in Climate change 2001: The scientific basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. I. Johnson, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
  • Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, and R. A. Wood, The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dyn., 16, 147168, 2000.
  • Hilmer, M., and P. Lemke, On the decrease of Arctic sea ice volume, Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 37513754, 2000.
  • Holloway, G., and T. Sou, Has Arctic sea ice rapidly thinned? J. Clim., 15, 16911701, 2002.
  • Johns, T. C., et al., Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios, HCTN 22, available from the Hadley Centre, 2001.
  • Lisæter, K. A., O. M. Johannessen, H. Drange, G. Evensen, and S. Sandven, Comparison of modeled and observed sea ice concentration and thickness fields in the Arctic, J. Geophys. Res. in press.
  • Nakićenović, N., et al., Special report on emissions scenarios, 599 pp., Cambridge, 2000.
  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, C. K. Folland, E. B. Horton, L. V. Alexander, and D. P. Rowell, Globally complete analyses of SST, sea ice and night marine air temperature, 1871–2000, in preparation.
  • Rothrock, D. A., Y. Yu, and G. A. Maykut, Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover, Geophys. Res. Let., 26, 34693472, 1999.
  • Smith, D. M., Recent increase in the length of the melt season of perennial Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Let., 25, 655658, 1998.
  • Stott, P. A., S. F. B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J. F. B. Mitchell, and G. J. Jenkins, External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings, Science, 290, 21332137, 2000.
  • Tucker, W. B., J. W. Weatherly, D. Eppler, L. D. Farmer, and D. L. Bentley, Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s, Geophys. Res. Let, 28, 28512854, 2001.
  • Vinnikov, K. Y., A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E. Walsh, C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov, Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, Science, 286, 19341937, 1999.
  • Winsor, P., Arctic sea ice thickness remained constant during the 1990s, Geophys. Res. Let., 28, 10391041, 2001.
  • Zhang, J. L., D. Rothrock, and M. Steele, Recent changes in Arctic sea ice: The interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics, J. Clim., 13, 30993114, 2000.