Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union

Ocean thermal structure monitoring could aid in the intensity forecast of tropical cyclones



Accurate prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is highly important for planning the evacuation of densely populated coastal areas and for impact assessment. Though forecasts of Atlantic hurricane tracks have improved greatly during recent years, large errors in intensity forecasts still remain. Dynamical and statistical models are currently being used, with a different range of success, to predict the location of tropical cyclone intensity changes. Statistical prediction models attempt to quantify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensification and variables that can be estimated or observed in real time.