Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation
Article first published online: 9 JUL 2004
Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 31, Issue 13, July 2004
How to Cite
2004), Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13208, doi:10.1029/2004GL020103., , and (
- Issue published online: 9 JUL 2004
- Article first published online: 9 JUL 2004
- Manuscript Accepted: 16 JUN 2004
- Manuscript Revised: 27 MAY 2004
- Manuscript Received: 29 MAR 2004
 As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state-of-the-art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with altitude until it reaches a maximum ratio with respect to the surface of as much as 1.5 to 2.0 at about 200–400 hPa. However, the temperature trends from several independent observational data sets show decreasing as well as mostly negative values. This disparity indicates that the three models examined here fail to account for the effects of greenhouse forcings.