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Keywords:

  • North Atlantic Oscillation;
  • beta binomial distribution;
  • gamma distribution;
  • logistic regression;
  • weather generator

[1] We consider the problem of simulating sequences of daily rainfall at a network of sites in such a way as to reproduce a variety of properties realistically over a range of spatial scales. The properties of interest will vary between applications but typically will include some measures of “extreme” rainfall in addition to means, variances, proportions of wet days, and autocorrelation structure. Our approach is to fit a generalized linear model (GLM) to rain gauge data and, with appropriate incorporation of intersite dependence structure, to use the GLM to generate simulated sequences. We illustrate the methodology using a data set from southern England and show that the GLM is able to reproduce many properties at spatial scales ranging from a single site to 2000 km2 (the limit of the available data).