Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change?
Article first published online: 9 AUG 2005
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 32, Issue 15, August 2005
How to Cite
2005), Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change? Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15707, doi:10.1029/2005GL022771., , , and (
- Issue published online: 9 AUG 2005
- Article first published online: 9 AUG 2005
- Manuscript Accepted: 8 JUL 2005
- Manuscript Revised: 6 JUN 2005
- Manuscript Received: 23 FEB 2005
 The stability of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated by means of a box model of the tropical atmosphere. At the heart of this model is the moisture-advection feedback which allows for the existence of two stable regimes: besides the “wet” summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by low precipitation. The model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative systems behavior in response to changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcations against changes in those quantities which govern the heat balance of the system, i.e., the planetary albedo, the insolation, and the CO2 concentration. These findings are remarkable insofar as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo, such as sulphur emissions and/or land-use changes, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentration could trigger abrupt transitions between different monsoon regimes.