Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations
Article first published online: 15 DEC 2005
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 32, Issue 23, December 2005
How to Cite
2005), Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23825, doi:10.1029/2005GL024452., , , and (
- Issue published online: 15 DEC 2005
- Article first published online: 15 DEC 2005
- Manuscript Accepted: 3 NOV 2005
- Manuscript Revised: 31 OCT 2005
- Manuscript Received: 2 SEP 2005
 The first multi thousand member “perturbed physics” ensemble simulation of present and future climate, completed by the distributed computing project climateprediction.net, is used to search for constraints on the response to increasing greenhouse gas levels among present day observable climate variables. The search is conducted with a systematic statistical methodology to identify correlations between observables and the quantities we wish to predict, namely the climate sensitivity and the climate feedback parameter. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to ensure that results are minimally dependent on the parameters of the methodology. Our best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3.3 K. When an internally consistent representation of the origins of model-data discrepancy is used to calculate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, the 5th and 95th percentiles are 2.2 K and 6.8 K respectively. These results are sensitive, particularly the upper bound, to the representation of the origins of model-data discrepancy.