Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence
Article first published online: 15 AUG 2006
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 33, Issue 15, August 2006
How to Cite
2006), Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L15711, doi:10.1029/2006GL025808., and (
- Issue published online: 15 AUG 2006
- Article first published online: 15 AUG 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 27 JUN 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 22 MAY 2006
- Manuscript Received: 25 JAN 2006
 A new method based on global climate model pressure gradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weather conditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of this method for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrence resulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs and observed offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projected change in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climate models, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other a middle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emission scenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis shows consistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September–October) to later (November–December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantly increase the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, loss of life, and property.