Future winter extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Arctic

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Abstract

[1] This study investigates the possible changes in future winter temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic using the regional climate model HIRHAM4. Under the B2 emission scenario conditions, frequency and intensity of future (2037–2051) extremes have changed significantly compared to the present-day (1981–1995) extremes. Extreme precipitations have intensified and the number of extreme events has changed significantly over East Siberia and Barents Sea. Extreme warm and extreme cold temperatures have become warmer with maxima over Barents Sea and Central Eurasia. Changes in the mean climate and its variability are modulating the future winter extreme events.

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