A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
Article first published online: 20 JUL 2006
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 33, Issue 14, July 2006
How to Cite
2006), A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14701, doi:10.1029/2006GL026679., , , and (
- Issue published online: 20 JUL 2006
- Article first published online: 20 JUL 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 15 JUN 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 13 JUN 2006
- Manuscript Received: 24 APR 2006
 Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies.