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Climate
A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model
Article first published online: 21 DEC 2006
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027229
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Additional Information
How to Cite
, , , , and (2006), A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24702, doi:10.1029/2006GL027229.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 21 DEC 2006
- Article first published online: 21 DEC 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 31 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 23 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Received: 14 JUN 2006
- Abstract
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- References
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Keywords:
- regional climate model;
- PRECIS;
- model validation;
- SRES B2 scenario;
- extreme climate events;
- China
[1] Based on the PRECIS climate model system, we simulate the distribution of the present (1961∼1990) and future (2071∼2100) extreme climate events in China under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The results show that for the present case PRECIS simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme climate events when compared with observations. In the future the occurrence of hot events is projected to be more frequent and the growing season will lengthen, while the occurrence of cold events is likely to be much rarer. A warming environment will also give rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. There would be an overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of China. The southeast coastal zone, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North China are projected to experience more extreme precipitation than the present.