1944-8007/asset/olbannerleft.jpg?v=1&s=8efe58b4bccbbac51c9740677fc27dec62622c0b)
1944-8007/asset/olbannerright.jpg?v=1&s=4147b7adc92f6020ebf1ced4d118944fcf4a9a0b)
Oceans
An ENSO shift revisited
Article first published online: 21 NOV 2006
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027632
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Additional Information
How to Cite
(2006), An ENSO shift revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22602, doi:10.1029/2006GL027632.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 21 NOV 2006
- Article first published online: 21 NOV 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 18 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 6 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Received: 20 JUL 2006
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- ENSO;
- time series modeling
[1] An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding.