An ENSO shift revisited
Article first published online: 21 NOV 2006
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 33, Issue 22, November 2006
How to Cite
2006), An ENSO shift revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22602, doi:10.1029/2006GL027632.(
- Issue published online: 21 NOV 2006
- Article first published online: 21 NOV 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 18 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 6 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Received: 20 JUL 2006
- time series modeling
 An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding.