Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records
Article first published online: 15 DEC 2006
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 33, Issue 23, December 2006
How to Cite
2006), Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23312, doi:10.1029/2006GL027795., , and (
- Issue published online: 15 DEC 2006
- Article first published online: 15 DEC 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 23 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Revised: 4 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Received: 9 AUG 2006
- earthquake early warning;
- fracture dynamics;
- real-time magnitude estimation
 We show that the low-pass filtered, peak amplitudes of initial P- and S-wave seismic signals recorded in the vicinity of an occurring earthquake source correlates with the earthquake magnitude and may be used for real-time estimation of the event size in seismic early warning applications. The earthquake size can be therefore estimated using only a couple of seconds of signal from the P- or S-wave onsets, i.e. while the rupture itself is still propagating and rupture dimension is far from complete. We argue that dynamic stress release and/or slip duration on the fault in the very early stage of seismic fracture, scales both with the observed peak amplitude and with the elastic energy available for fracture propagation. The probability that a fracture grows to a larger size should scale with the energy initially available.