Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast

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Abstract

Two hurricane forecasters are predicting that 2008 will be an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season with an above-average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States. During 2008, there could be about seven hurricanes (the annual average is 5.9) and 13 named storms (the average is 9.6), according to a 7 December report by Philip Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, and William Gray, university professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences. The forecasters indicate that they believe the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle that is associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The report notes that, “real-time operational early December forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology during this 16-year period [1992–2007]. This has occurred despite the fact that the skill over the hindcast period…showed appreciable skill.” For more information, visit the Web site: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/dec2007/dec2007.pdf.

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