Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?
Article first published online: 10 MAY 2007
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 34, Issue 9, May 2007
How to Cite
2007), Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09503, doi:10.1029/2007GL029323.(
- Issue published online: 10 MAY 2007
- Article first published online: 10 MAY 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 11 APR 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 7 MAR 2007
- Manuscript Received: 11 JAN 2007
- climate change;
- permafrost degradation;
- Arctic region;
- numerical simulation
 A previously presented model on nearly complete near-surface permafrost degradation in the Arctic during the 21st century is critically reviewed. An alternative model with a more complete mathematical formulation of the physical processes acting in permafrost terrain is presented, which suggests that permafrost will mostly prevail in this century in areas north of 70°N. Furthermore, permafrost will survive at depth in most areas between 60° to 70°N. Based on paleoclimatic data and in consequence of this study, it is suggested that scenarios calling for massive release of methane in the near future from degrading permafrost are questionable.