Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations
Article first published online: 28 JUL 2007
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 34, Issue 14, July 2007
How to Cite
2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977., , , , , , and (
- Issue published online: 28 JUL 2007
- Article first published online: 28 JUL 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 22 MAY 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 16 MAY 2007
- Manuscript Received: 13 MAR 2007
- regional climate change;
- tropical cyclones;
 Tropical cyclones form only under specific environmental conditions. Anthropogenic climate change might alter the geographical areas where tropical cyclones can develop. Using an ensemble of regional climate models, we find an increase in the extremes of cyclone intensity over the Mediterranean Sea under a climate change scenario. At least for the most sensitive model, the increase in intensity is clearly associated with the formation of tropical cyclones. Previous studies did not find evidence of changes in the projected areas of formation of tropical cyclones (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Walsh, 2004; Lionello et al., 2002). Those studies were based either on relatively low-resolution global climate models or on one particular regional climate model. The use of a multi-model ensemble of relatively high-resolution regional climate models has allowed us to detect for the first time a risk of tropical cyclone development over the Mediterranean Sea under future climate change conditions.