Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP
Article first published online: 24 AUG 2007
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 34, Issue 16, August 2007
How to Cite
2007), Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740., , , , , , , , and (
- Issue published online: 24 AUG 2007
- Article first published online: 24 AUG 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 19 JUL 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 21 JUN 2007
- Manuscript Received: 20 MAY 2007
- tropical storms;
- seasonal forecasts;
 Most seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm numbers are produced using statistical-empirical models. However, forecasts can also be made using numerical models which encode the laws of physics, here referred to as “dynamical models”. Based on 12 years of re-forecasts and 2 years of real-time forecasts, we show that the so-called EUROSIP (EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction) multi-model ensemble of coupled ocean atmosphere models has substantial skill in probabilistic prediction of the number of Atlantic tropical storms. The EUROSIP real-time forecasts correctly distinguished between the exceptional year of 2005 and the average hurricane year of 2006. These results have implications for the reliability of climate change predictions of tropical cyclone activity using similar dynamically-based coupled ocean-atmosphere models.