Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets
Article first published online: 6 OCT 2007
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 34, Issue 19, October 2007
How to Cite
2007), Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19703, doi:10.1029/2007GL031018., , , and (
- Issue published online: 6 OCT 2007
- Article first published online: 6 OCT 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 SEP 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 27 AUG 2007
- Manuscript Received: 15 JUN 2007
- climate change;
- carbon cycle;
- global warming
 A coupled atmosphere-ocean-carbon cycle model is used to examine the long term climate implications of various 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. All emission targets considered with less than 60% global reduction by 2050 break the 2.0°C threshold warming this century, a number that some have argued represents an upper bound on manageable climate warming. Even when emissions are stabilized at 90% below present levels at 2050, this 2.0°C threshold is eventually broken. Our results suggest that if a 2.0°C warming is to be avoided, direct CO2 capture from the air, together with subsequent sequestration, would eventually have to be introduced in addition to sustained 90% global carbon emissions reductions by 2050.