Climate

Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate

  1. C. A. McAlpine1,
  2. J. Syktus2,
  3. R. C. Deo1,
  4. P. J. Lawrence3,
  5. H. A. McGowan1,
  6. I. G. Watterson4,
  7. S. R. Phinn1

Article first published online: 29 NOV 2007

DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031524

Issue

Geophysical Research Letters

Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Information

How to Cite

McAlpine, C. A., J. Syktus, R. C. Deo, P. J. Lawrence, H. A. McGowan, I. G. Watterson, and S. R. Phinn (2007), Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22711, doi:10.1029/2007GL031524.

Author Information

  1. 1

    Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

  2. 2

    Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Department of Natural Resources and Water, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia

  3. 3

    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  4. 4

    CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 29 NOV 2007
  2. Article first published online: 29 NOV 2007
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 8 OCT 2007
  4. Manuscript Revised: 6 SEP 2007
  5. Manuscript Received: 30 JUL 2007

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Keywords:

  • Australian climate;
  • land cover change;
  • Australian droughts

[1] The Australian landscape has been transformed extensively since European settlement. However, the potential impact of historical land cover change (LCC) on regional climate has been a secondary consideration in the climate change projections. In this study, we analyzed data from a pair of ensembles (10 members each) for the period 1951–2003 to quantify changes in regional climate by comparing results from pre-European and modern-day land cover characteristics. The results of the sensitivity simulations showed the following: a statistically significant warming of the surface temperature, especially for summer in eastern Australia (0.4–2°C) and southwest Western Australia (0.4–0.8°C); a statistically significant decrease in summer rainfall in southeast Australia; and increased surface temperature in eastern regions during the 2002/2003 El Niño drought event. The simulated magnitude and pattern of change indicates that LCC has potentially been an important contributing factor to the observed changes in regional climate of Australia.

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