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Climate
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Article first published online: 16 JAN 2008
DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032436
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
Additional Information
How to Cite
, , , and (2008), An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02702, doi:10.1029/2007GL032436.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 16 JAN 2008
- Article first published online: 16 JAN 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 26 NOV 2007
- Manuscript Received: 29 OCT 2007
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- climate dynamics;
- rainfall changes;
- climate drivers
[1] The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows; these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an El Niño-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate along Australia's east coast, however, the rain-reducing impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.