Toward Reducing Uncertainties in Arctic Climate Simulations

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Abstract

The coincidence of rapid change in Arctic climate (the extreme 2007 decline in sea ice and recent unprecedented warming) and enhanced observational activities during the International Polar Year (IPY; 2007–2008) offers hope that these changes will be documented in great detail. However, in order to explain changes in the Arctic and predict its future dynamics, models of the Arctic climatic system are needed to reproduce past and present states and to predict future transformations. Results from existing models are not always satisfactory [e.g., Stroeve et al., 2007] because there are significant uncertainties in model forcing, parameterization of physical processes, and internal model parameters.

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