Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
Article first published online: 22 APR 2008
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 35, Issue 8, April 2008
How to Cite
2008), Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08502, doi:10.1029/2008GL033244., , , , and (
- Issue published online: 22 APR 2008
- Article first published online: 22 APR 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 21 MAR 2008
- Manuscript Revised: 10 MAR 2008
- Manuscript Received: 10 JAN 2008
- Arctic Ocean;
- sea ice;
- ensemble prediction
 Ensemble predictions of arctic sea ice in spring and summer 2008 have been carried out using an ice-ocean model. The ensemble is constructed by using atmospheric forcing from 2001 to 2007 and the September 2007 ice and ocean conditions estimated by the model. The prediction results show that the record low ice cover and the unusually warm ocean surface waters in summer 2007 lead to a substantial reduction in ice thickness in 2008. Up to 1.2 m ice thickness reduction is predicted in a large area of the Canada Basin in both spring and summer of 2008, leading to extraordinarily thin ice in summer 2008. There is a 50% chance that both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be nearly ice free in September 2008. It is not likely there will be another precipitous decline in arctic sea ice extent such as seen in 2007, unless a new atmospheric forcing regime, significantly different from the recent past, occurs.