Has the climate recently shifted?
Article first published online: 31 MAR 2009
Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 36, Issue 6, March 2009
How to Cite
2009), Has the climate recently shifted? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06711, doi:10.1029/2008GL037022., and (
- Issue published online: 31 MAR 2009
- Article first published online: 31 MAR 2009
- Manuscript Accepted: 24 FEB 2009
- Manuscript Revised: 30 JAN 2009
- Manuscript Received: 16 DEC 2008
- climate change
 This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability serve as a harbinger of climate shifts. Specifically, when the major modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability are synchronized, or resonate, and the coupling between those modes simultaneously increases, the climate system appears to be thrown into a new state, marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend and in the character of El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. Here, a new and improved means to quantify the coupling between climate modes confirms that another synchronization of these modes, followed by an increase in coupling occurred in 2001/02. This suggests that a break in the global mean temperature trend from the consistent warming over the 1976/77–2001/02 period may have occurred.