Trends in joint quantiles of temperature and precipitation in Europe since 1901 and projected for 2100



[1] This study assesses the changes in the exceedances of joint extremes of temperature and precipitation quantiles for a number of sites in Europe. The combination of cool/dry, cool/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet modes reveals a systematic change at all locations investigated in the course of the 20th century, with significant declines in the frequency of occurrence of the “cold” modes and a sharp rise in that of the “warm” modes. The changing behavior of these four modes is also accompanied by changes in the particular conditions of temperature and precipitation associated with each mode; for example, the average amount of precipitation during cool/wet events decreases while that during warm/wet events increases, even though mean precipitation at most locations shows no significant trend. In a “greenhouse climate”, the “cool” modes are almost totally absent by 2100 whereas the warm/dry and warm/wet modes pursue the progression already observed in the 20th century.