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Regular Article
Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: A review of concepts and tools
Article first published online: 17 JUN 2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007301
Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
1944-7973/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=797107f92f501d54ec880f7cc7998a974ae89f63 "Water Resources Research")
Additional Information
How to Cite
, , and (2009), Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: A review of concepts and tools, Water Resour. Res., 45, W06421, doi:10.1029/2008WR007301.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 17 JUN 2009
- Article first published online: 17 JUN 2009
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 APR 2009
- Manuscript Revised: 16 FEB 2009
- Manuscript Received: 21 JUL 2008
Keywords:
- model evaluation;
- uncertainty analysis;
- sensitivity analysis;
- identifiability;
- parameter estimation;
- Bayesian networks
[1] This paper reviews concepts for evaluating integrated environmental models and discusses a list of relevant software-based tools. A simplified taxonomy for sources of uncertainty and a glossary of key terms with “standard” definitions are provided in the context of integrated approaches to environmental assessment. These constructs provide a reference point for cataloging 65 different model evaluation tools. Each tool is described briefly (in the auxiliary material) and is categorized for applicability across seven thematic model evaluation methods. Ratings for citation count and software availability are also provided, and a companion Web site containing download links for tool software is introduced. The paper concludes by reviewing strategies for tool interoperability and offers guidance for both practitioners and tool developers.