Is the climate warming or cooling?
Article first published online: 25 APR 2009
Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 36, Issue 8, April 2009
How to Cite
2009), Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810., and (
- Issue published online: 25 APR 2009
- Article first published online: 25 APR 2009
- Manuscript Accepted: 30 MAR 2009
- Manuscript Revised: 25 MAR 2009
- Manuscript Received: 18 FEB 2009
- global warming;
- climate change
 Numerous websites, blogs and articles in the media have claimed that the climate is no longer warming, and is now cooling. Here we show that periods of no trend or even cooling of the globally averaged surface air temperature are found in the last 34 years of the observed record, and in climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st century forced with increasing greenhouse gases. We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer-term warming.