Climate

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

  1. S. Jevrejeva1,
  2. A. Grinsted2,
  3. J. C. Moore3,4,5

Article first published online: 28 OCT 2009

DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040216

Issue

Geophysical Research Letters

Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Information

How to Cite

Jevrejeva, S., A. Grinsted, and J. C. Moore (2009), Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20706, doi:10.1029/2009GL040216.

Author Information

  1. 1

    Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, UK

  2. 2

    Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

  3. 3

    Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland

  4. 4

    Thule Institute, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

  5. 5

    College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 28 OCT 2009
  2. Article first published online: 28 OCT 2009
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 23 SEP 2009
  4. Manuscript Revised: 7 SEP 2009
  5. Manuscript Received: 23 JUL 2009

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Keywords:

  • sea level rise;
  • volcanic and solar radiative forcing;
  • CO2 and other greenhouse gases

[1] The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

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