Climate and Dynamics

Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter

  1. G. Foster1,
  2. J. D. Annan2,
  3. P. D. Jones3,
  4. M. E. Mann4,
  5. B. Mullan5,
  6. J. Renwick5,
  7. J. Salinger6,
  8. G. A. Schmidt7,
  9. K. E. Trenberth8

Article first published online: 14 MAY 2010

DOI: 10.1029/2009JD012960

Issue

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012)

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012)

Additional Information

How to Cite

Foster, G., J. D. Annan, P. D. Jones, M. E. Mann, B. Mullan, J. Renwick, J. Salinger, G. A. Schmidt, and K. E. Trenberth (2010), Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012960.

Author Information

  1. 1

    Tempo Analytics, Westbrook, Maine, USA

  2. 2

    Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

  3. 3

    Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

  4. 4

    Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA

  5. 5

    Climate Variability Group, NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand

  6. 6

    School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

  7. 7

    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA

  8. 8

    Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  1. This is a commentary on DOI:10.1029/2008JD011637

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 14 MAY 2010
  2. Article first published online: 14 MAY 2010
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 6 APR 2010
  4. Manuscript Revised: 27 OCT 2009
  5. Manuscript Received: 5 AUG 2009

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Keywords:

  • global warming;
  • El Niño–Southern Oscillation

[1] McLean et al. (2009) (henceforth MFC09) claim that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), accounts for as much as 72% of the global tropospheric temperature anomaly and an even higher 81% of this anomaly in the tropics. They conclude that the SOI is a “dominant and consistent influence on mean global temperatures,” “and perhaps recent trends in global temperatures.” However, their analysis is inappropriate in a number of ways and overstates the influence of ENSO on the climate system. This comment first briefly reviews what is understood about the influence of ENSO on global temperatures and then shows that the analysis of MFC09 greatly overestimates the correlation between temperature anomalies and the SOI by inflating the power in the 2–6 year time window while filtering out variability on longer and shorter time scales. The suggestion in their conclusions that ENSO may be a major contributor to recent trends in global temperature is not supported by their analysis or any physical theory presented in their paper, especially as the analysis method itself eliminates the influence of trends on the purported correlations.

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