Advertisement

Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors

Authors

  • W. J. W. Botzen,

    1. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Search for more papers by this author
  • J. C. J. H. Aerts,

    1. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Search for more papers by this author
  • J. C. J. M. van den Bergh

    1. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    2. ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
    3. Institute of Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History Autonomous, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
    4. Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Search for more papers by this author

Abstract

[1] This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general, perceptions of flood risk are low. An analysis of the factors determining risk perceptions provides four main insights relevant for policy makers and insurers. First, differences in expected risk are consistently related to actual risk levels, since individuals in the vicinity of a main river and low-lying areas generally have elevated risk perceptions. Second, individuals in areas unprotected by dikes tend to underestimate their risk of flooding. Third, individuals with little knowledge of the causes of flood events have lower perceptions of flood risk. Fourth, there is some evidence that older and more highly educated individuals have a lower flood risk perception. The findings indicate that increasing knowledge of citizens about the causes of flooding may increase flood risk awareness. It is especially important to target individuals who live in areas unprotected by dike infrastructure, since they tend to be unaware of or ignore the high risk exposure faced.

Ancillary