How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?
Article first published online: 3 APR 2010
Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 37, Issue 7, April 2010
How to Cite
2010), How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07703, doi:10.1029/2010GL042947., , and (
- Issue published online: 3 APR 2010
- Article first published online: 3 APR 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 5 MAR 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 2 MAR 2010
- Manuscript Received: 17 FEB 2010
- sea level rise;
- sea level projections by 2100;
- climate forcing
 Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6–1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10–15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12–20 years. A 21st century with the lowest level of solar irradiance over the last 9300 years results in negligible difference to sea level rise.