Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century?
Article first published online: 25 AUG 2010
Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 37, Issue 16, August 2010
How to Cite
2010), Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16706, doi:10.1029/2010GL044159., and (
- Issue published online: 25 AUG 2010
- Article first published online: 25 AUG 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 21 JUL 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 8 JUL 2010
- Manuscript Received: 31 MAY 2010
- Asian monsoon;
 Mixture model techniques are applied to a daily index of monsoon convection from ERA-40 reanalysis to show regime behavior. The result is the existence of two significant regimes showing preferred locations of convection within the Asia/Western-North Pacific domain, with some resemblance to active-break events over India. Simple trend analysis over 1958–2001 shows that the first regime has become less frequent while the second becomes much more dominant. Both undergo a change in structure contributing to the total OLR trend over the ERA-40 period. Stratifying the data according to a large-scale dynamical index of monsoon interannual variability, we show the regime occurrence to be strongly perturbed by the seasonal condition, in agreement with conceptual ideas. This technique could be used to further examine predictability issues relating the seasonal mean and intraseasonal monsoon variability or to explore changes in monsoon behavior in centennial-scale model integrations.