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Keywords:

  • AMOC

[1] AMOC variations are often thought to propagate with the Kelvin wave speed, resulting in a short time lead between high and low latitudes AMOC variations. However as shown in this paper using a coupled climate model (GFDL CM2.1), with the existence of interior pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) from Flemish Cap to Cape Hatteras as that observed recently, AMOC variations estimated in density space propagate with the advection speed in this region, resulting in a much longer time lead (several years) between subpolar and subtropical AMOC variations and providing a more useful predictability. The results suggest that AMOC variations have significant meridional coherence in density space, and monitoring AMOC variations in density space at higher latitudes might reveal a stronger signal with a several-year time lead.