Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model
Article first published online: 10 NOV 2010
Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 37, Issue 21, November 2010
How to Cite
2010), Predictability of Indian summer monsoon weather during active and break phases using a high resolution regional model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21812, doi:10.1029/2010GL044969., , and (
- Issue published online: 10 NOV 2010
- Article first published online: 10 NOV 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 27 SEP 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 20 SEP 2010
- Manuscript Received: 11 AUG 2010
 As the active and break phases of Indian monsoon are associated with different large scale background regimes, the predictability of monsoon weather is expected to be different during these phases. In the present study, an ensemble of ‘identical twin’ perturbation experiments are carried out using Weather Research Forecast model at 15 km resolution to demonstrate the predictability of weather during these phases. The initial conditions are taken from the 9 years (2001–2009) control simulations during periods of strong intra-seasonal oscillations events. The study revealed that the background estimates are different in these two contrasting regimes with more errors in the active phases confined mostly along the monsoon trough region. As a consequence, the predictability of active (break) period is found to be around 4 (10) days. Thus, the rapid (sluggish) error growth indicates that the monsoon weather such as lows are less (more) predictable during active (break) phases.