On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe
Article first published online: 4 MAR 2011
Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 38, Issue 5, 16 March 2011
How to Cite
2011), On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455., , , and (
- Issue published online: 4 MAR 2011
- Article first published online: 4 MAR 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 26 JAN 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 18 JAN 2011
- Manuscript Received: 9 DEC 2010
 The European summer 2003 is a prominent example for an extreme hot and dry season. The main mechanisms that contributed to the growth of the heat wave are still disputed and state-of-the-art climate models have difficulty to realistically simulate the extreme conditions. Here we analyse simulations using recent versions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal ensemble forecasting system and present, for the first time, retrospective forecasts which simulate accurately not only the abnormal warmth but also the observed precipitation and mid-tropospheric circulation patterns. It is found that while the land surface hydrology plays a crucial role, the successful simulations also required revised formulations of the radiative and convective parameterizations. We conclude that the predictability of the event was less due to remote teleconnections effects and more due to in situ processes which helped maintain the dry surface anomalies occurring at the beginning of the summer.