Climate and Dynamics

Reconstructing drought variability for Mongolia based on a large-scale tree ring network: 1520–1993

  1. N. Davi1,
  2. G. Jacoby1,2,
  3. K. Fang3,
  4. J. Li4,
  5. R. D'Arrigo1,
  6. N. Baatarbileg1,2,
  7. D. Robinson5

Article first published online: 16 NOV 2010

DOI: 10.1029/2010JD013907

Issue

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012)

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012)

Volume 115, Issue D22, 27 November 2010

Additional Information

How to Cite

Davi, N., G. Jacoby, K. Fang, J. Li, R. D'Arrigo, N. Baatarbileg, and D. Robinson (2010), Reconstructing drought variability for Mongolia based on a large-scale tree ring network: 1520–1993, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D22103, doi:10.1029/2010JD013907.

Author Information

  1. 1

    Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

  2. 2

    Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Forestry, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

  3. 3

    Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

  4. 4

    International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

  5. 5

    Department of Geography, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 16 NOV 2010
  2. Article first published online: 16 NOV 2010
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 25 AUG 2010
  4. Manuscript Revised: 18 AUG 2010
  5. Manuscript Received: 21 JAN 2010

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Keywords:

  • drought;
  • Mongolia;
  • PDSI;
  • dzud;
  • dendrochronology

[1] Previous tree ring based hydrologic studies in Mongolia have been regional in scale. Here, we present a large-scale summer drought reconstruction for Mongolia that reveals the main summer moisture patterns of the past. This reconstruction is based on a network of tree ring chronologies that span the country. The resulting drought model explains 61% of the variance and is extended to cover 1520–1993 by using a nested approach to modeling. Severe droughts and harsh winter conditions occurred in Mongolia from ∼1999–2002 and contributed to massive livestock mortality and economic loss. These droughts were extreme in the context of the past several hundred years. Significant periodicities are found at 40 (90%), 19.3–25 (99%), 11.6 (95%), 6.4–7.2 (95%), and 2.8 years (99%). This high-resolution drought reconstruction and associated tree ring chronologies supplement and extend the sparse meteorological data in Mongolia and can be used to better understand climate variability and potential forcings of climate.

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