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Keywords:

  • extreme values;
  • nonstationary;
  • software

Abstract

  1. Top of page
  2. Abstract
  3. Acknowledgments
  4. References

[1] Average behavior is often studied, with well-developed techniques from the field of statistics allowing for inferences to be readily made. However, in many atmospheric, hydrologic, and other geophysical problems, extremes are of the greatest interest. The usual statistical methods for averages do not correctly inform scientists about extremes, but a more specialized area of statistical research focused on extremes can be applied instead. Where the normal distribution has theoretical support for use with averages, other forms of distribution have similar theoretical support for the extremes: the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for analyzing extreme statistics like annual maxima or minima, and the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution for excesses over a high threshold (or deficits below a low threshold) [e.g., Coles, 2001]. For more background on the statistics of geophysical extremes, especially those for weather and climate, seehttp://www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html.


Acknowledgments

  1. Top of page
  2. Abstract
  3. Acknowledgments
  4. References

The Extremes Toolkit was funded by the Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (http://www.assessment.ucar.edu) in an effort to facilitate the use of cutting-edge statistical science in climate change research, and an impact has already been seen, with over 700 registrants worldwide and numerous refereed articles having made use of it. NCAR is sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation.

References

  1. Top of page
  2. Abstract
  3. Acknowledgments
  4. References
  • Coles, S. (2001), An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer,London.
  • Milly, P. C. D., J.Betancourt, M.Falkenmark, R. M.Hirsch, Z. W.Kundzewicz, D. P.Lettenmaier, and R. J.Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319(5863),573574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915.