Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union

Next generation atmospheric model improves hurricane forecasting

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Abstract

[1] Accurately predicting hurricane development from one season to the next is a problem that crosses multiple temporal and spatial scales. The driving force behind the overall activity level for a year depends on broad climate dynamics, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), while the generation of an individual tropical cyclone is a product of small-scale fluctuations in atmospheric moisture or sea surface temperature. Classically, these broad- or small-scale events have fallen within the realm of climate or weather forecasting models, respectively. However, researchers have recently developed the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), which can flip between weather forecasting and climate modeling. HiRAM has 25-kilometer horizontal resolution and can properly represent clouds, both important improvements over current models. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047629, 2011)

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