Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

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Abstract

[1] Using idealised model experiments we show that the tropical Atlantic main hurricane development region (MDR) is potentially one of the most predictable regions for atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind shear on multi-year timescales. Similarly we also find predictability for the number of tropical storms and the position of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Further experiments that withhold data in different parts of the ocean identify the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre as the key region for driving the skill in the model MDR. This further highlights the importance of observing the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean for initialising future decadal predictions.

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