Sensitivity of the northeast Asian summer monsoon to tropical sea surface temperatures



[1] Observations indicate increasing trends of summer precipitation amount, intensity, and frequency of extremes over northeast Asia since the 1960s. Climate models are generally able to simulate such increases of precipitation over northeast Asia over the 2nd half of the 20th century, and project continuations of these trends in response to the projected warming of the tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, especially around the Philippines and the South China Sea. The principal basis for confidence in these projections is the simplicity and robustness of the mechanisms involved. In essence, the warming of these waters enhances the northward moisture transport from the tropics to northeast Asia, leading to an increase of the northeast Asian precipitation.