Atmospheric Science

Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters

  1. Michael K. Tippett1,
  2. Adam H. Sobel2,3,
  3. Suzana J. Camargo3

Article first published online: 18 JAN 2012

DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050368

Issue

Geophysical Research Letters

Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Information

How to Cite

Tippett, M. K., A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo (2012), Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050368.

Author Information

  1. 1

    International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

  2. 2

    Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA

  3. 3

    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 18 JAN 2012
  2. Article first published online: 18 JAN 2012
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 13 DEC 2011
  4. Manuscript Revised: 12 DEC 2011
  5. Manuscript Received: 15 NOV 2011

Funded by

  • NOAA. Grant Numbers: NA05OAR4311004, NA08OAR4320912

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Keywords:

  • tornadoes

[1] Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.

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