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Atmospheric Science
Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models
Article first published online: 2 MAR 2012
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050762
Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union
Additional Information
How to Cite
, , , and (2012), Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05803, doi:10.1029/2011GL050762.
Publication History
- Issue published online: 2 MAR 2012
- Article first published online: 2 MAR 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 2 FEB 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 1 FEB 2012
- Manuscript Received: 2 JAN 2012
Keywords:
- climate change;
- precipitation extremes;
- regional climate modeling;
- western US
[1] We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.