Climate and Dynamics
Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate
Article first published online: 26 AUG 2011
Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012)
Volume 116, Issue D16, 27 August 2011
How to Cite
2011), Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D16118, doi:10.1029/2011JD015749., , , , , and (
- Issue published online: 26 AUG 2011
- Article first published online: 26 AUG 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 20 MAY 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 9 MAY 2011
- Manuscript Received: 1 FEB 2011
- Earth system model;
- climate change;
 Results of comprehensive long-term simulations of surface all-sky and clear-sky ultraviolet (UV) radiation through 1960–2100 are presented. A new earth system model, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, is used for the simulation, which considers key processes that change the surface UV radiation: atmospheric dynamics and chemistry affecting ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere, aerosols and clouds in the troposphere, and changes in surface albedo with sea ice and snow cover. In contrast to previous assessments considering only the effect of long-term change in stratospheric ozone, the simulated long-term behavior of UV radiation in this study is strongly affected by other processes. In one of two simulations, all-sky UV radiation in the northern midlatitudes is projected to increase in the 21st century despite the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Reductions in aerosols and clouds are expected to overcompensate for the effect of ozone recovery. The results are sensitive to the future socioeconomic scenario, describing GHG concentrations and emissions of aerosol and ozone precursors in the troposphere. The interannual variability of UV radiation associated with the 11 year solar cycle and local processes is also discussed.