• climate change;
  • runoff;
  • water balance

[1] A water-balance model is used to simulate time series of water-year runoff for 4 km × 4 km grid cells for the conterminous United States during the 1900–2008 period. Model outputs are used to examine the separate effects of precipitation and temperature on runoff variability. Overall, water-year runoff has increased in the conterminous United States and precipitation has accounted for almost all of the variability in water-year runoff during the past century. In contrast, temperature effects on runoff have been small for most locations in the United States even during periods when temperatures for most of the United States increased significantly.