Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union

Midlatitude synoptic meteorology: Dynamics, analysis, and forecasting



The art and science of weather forecasting have changed considerably over the past few decades. The most obvious change is the advent of accurate numerical weather prediction. Given a comprehensive three-dimensional analysis, an operational forecast model will consistently outperform a human at lead times ranging from 10 hours to 7 days. The role of the human forecaster is to add value to the forecast, to ensure (for the sake of his or her own professional longevity) that the combined forecast information from the computer and the human is clearly more useful than the information from the computer alone.