A probabilistic method of predicting landslides



Heavy rainfall events can lead to devastating landslides, but predicting when rainfall will cause a landslide is challenging. Most current landslide prediction methods consider past rainfall events that resulted in landslides, and then use that as input to provide a deterministic rainfall threshold for a landslide to occur. These methods simply predict either a landslide or no landslide for given rainfall conditions. In a new study, Berti et al. developed a probabilistic approach that returns a probability, from 0 to 1, of a landslide occurring for a given rainfall amount. They tested their approach on historical rainfall and landslide data from the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy.