Directional influences on global temperature prediction
Article first published online: 7 JUL 2012
©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 39, Issue 13, July 2012
How to Cite
2012), Directional influences on global temperature prediction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13704, doi:10.1029/2012GL052149., , , , and (
- Issue published online: 7 JUL 2012
- Article first published online: 7 JUL 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 11 JUN 2012
- Manuscript Received: 25 MAY 2012
- Granger causality;
- climate dynamics;
- climate variability;
- nonlinear prediction
 There is growing evidence that major climate modes are involved in determining decadal variability in global mean temperature. These modes represent major oceanic and atmospheric signals and on decadal scales their collective interplay leads to climate shifts manifesting themselves as regime changes in global temperature trend. Here we investigate whether the collective role of these modes is extended within a regime, i.e. to shorter time scales. We apply nonlinear prediction in order to assess directional influences in the climate system. We show evidence that input from four major climate modes from the Atlantic and Pacific improves the prediction of global temperature and thus these modes Granger cause global temperature. Moreover, we find that this causality is not a result of a particular mode dominating but a result of the nonlinear collective behavior in the network of the four modes.